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This is a single-center, ambispective observational cohort study of adults with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF) receiving high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) as initial respiratory support. The study includes three stages. Stage 1 (retrospective derivation): the first 57 consecutive patients (May-September 2025) were retrospectively included to develop and lock a dual-domain logistic model using baseline EFI, baseline PaCO2, and 0-30 minute changes in respiratory rate (ΔRR) and SpO2 (ΔSpO2). Stage 2 (retrospective temporal validation): the later 58 patients (October 2025-March 2026) were retrospectively included, and the frozen model was directly applied without refitting; results of Stages 1 and 2 have been reported. Stage 3 (prospective validation): an independent prospective validation cohort is currently being enrolled, and the frozen model will be applied without refitting. The
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